Rematches aren’t rare in the world of mixed martial arts. If a fighter sticks around the organization for a significant period of time, then you may rest assured they’ll be scheduled to fight an opponent they have faced at one point or another. In addition to this, most dominant winners will constantly possess a rematch or 2 solely due to running out of fresh opponents to confront in their weight class.
When these rematches take place, how should you wager them? Should you bet on the fighter who won the first fight? Is the underdog the ideal play? That’s a question I wanted to reply so that I brought up some data on the topic.
Since UFC 1, even when fighters have faced??each other for a repeat bout, the winner of their prior fight has gone 71-43-3 from the rematch. This usually means the prior winner is victorious in 62% of rematch??struggles.
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To be able to use these numbers to our whole benefit as bettors, then we need to dive into them a little bit deeper. Our database for battle odds goes back into 2012, so we’ll use from then until current day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size to get favorites and underdogs.
Fighters who won the first fight walked??to the rematch because of gambling favorite??36??times out of a total of 60??rematches since 2012, winning 28??of those battles (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that’s an extremely high success rate, the profit from these types of fights isn’t quite as large as you might??imagine given that the fact that a decent part of the fighters??would’ve been favorites by a substantial margin. $100 bettors would’ve walked off with a gain of $377.64??when they kindly wager about the fighter that won the previous bout once they were recorded as the favorite??in the second fight all 36??times this happened.
The most significant (and profitable) statistic I found was that the fighter that won the initial bout??won 14??from 24??rematches if they were listed as an underdog, providing $100 bettors a profit of $1,013.46.
In general, since 2012,??if you wager $100 in the fighter that won the first battle when they competed in??a rematch, you would have gained a profit of $1,391.10.
History will repeat itself, and UFC rematches are no exception to this rule.
Bettors are able to look at UFC 210 as an prime illustration of this as Daniel Cormier went into his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog despite winning his first battle. He won in lopsided fashion via entry. Rose Namajunas was also an underdog in EVEN money heading right into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and went on to triumph in a convincing unanimous choice.
While the figures demonstrate that gambling on the fighter that won the first fight when they rematch a competition is profitable, the whole opposite can obviously be stated about gambling on fighters at a rematch bout who dropped the first competition.
Favorites in rematches if they lost the first battle are 10-14, losing $100 bettors that a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches when they lost the first fight are 8-28, losing $100 bettors that a total of 979.
In other words gambling statistics into phrases as simple as you can, you’ll feel safe betting on a fighter when they choose somebody whom they’ve already conquered. Whether they’re recorded as favorites or not, you will come to acquire a gain long term implementing this approach.
Not many rematches are made equal. There are a number of conflicts that never should be fought another time, or maybe a third??time in some instances *ahem*BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar*ahem*.
To take these fights from the equation, for interest’s sake??I wished to look at the numbers when choosing ONLY name struggles under consideration. For the fight to fall under this category, the first battle and the rematch had??to have been to get the buckle.
The all-time listing for the prior winner heading into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, previous winners in battles to the title are 17-3, netting $100 bettors a gain of $725.20.
These numbers clearly do nothing but further the purpose that betting on the former winner heading into a rematch is a intelligent play, so don’t hesitate to apply this strategy moving ahead in the event that you wish to win a little cash.